Weekly recap: ๐
Volatility returns ๐คนโโ๏ธ
And with it, of course, the red color returns ๐
After experiencing a temporary halt and calm in the index declines, they even ended one week with a slight green glimmer - we were on the verge of a shift to a positive trend by technical definition ๐
It didn't last โ
The S&P 500 index closed on Friday at its lowest weekly closing level since September 2025 but still above JPM's 'collar' which is at 5565 ๐ฎ
Not only that, the positive volume - the percentage of trades made in rising stocks out of all trades on the exchange - dropped by 90% on Friday ๐ณ
- This means one thing, there are no buyers in the market - at all, even in rising stocks, there is no trading volume! ๐ฉ
Bank of America provides an interesting insight into what's happening - according to Bank of America, retail client stock purchases in the last three weeks amounted to a significant 3.0% of AUM, the highest level since September 2022.๐
Are retail clients continuing to buy while institutional investors are aggressively selling? โ ๏ธ
The short rebound we experienced was weak and failed to signal even a slight positive trend; low volumes and over-selling whenever we rose indicate the continuation of the bear trend ๐งธ
Looking back to 2022, one can really see a mirror image: a sharp decline, a short rebound, and a return to a painful drop. ๐ช
- The next rebounds - at least historically - are expected to be more violent.. ๐
Quarterly, we are heading for the worst quarter since 2022, marking the worst first-quarter market performance under a new presidency- ๐ฅ
๐บ๐ธ Trump, are you listening?
No, he's not exactly interested; he's busy with other things - more important in his opinion ๐ง
My friend Trump, I have something to tell you, according to Bank of America - stocks represent a record 29% of American households' financial assets. ๐ฎ
Meaning almost 30% of the average American citizen's assets are in stocks! ๐ฏ
You are hurting your citizens, I don't know how long they will remain silent ๐ค
โ๏ธIt is important to note that on February 22, significant options trades were made on SPY - the ETF tracking the S&P 500 index -
The options, set to expire at the end of March, meaning this coming Monday, are betting on a significant decline in the index with targets ranging from 530 to 425. โ ๏ธ
The ETF is currently trading at 555, above all the whale's targets, and above JPM's 'collar' as mentioned. It will be interesting to see how things unfold this coming Monday, whether the index will hold above the collar or drop towards the whales' targets who bet on more significant declines by the end of March... ๐ค
Another interesting point: on Friday, 42 seconds before the close, a whale bought CALL options on the ETF tracking bond prices - TLT, worth $3.3 million.. ๐ต
Such a trade signals a bet on rising bond prices, meaning a drop in bond yields. Does this whale know something about an upcoming interest rate cut? ๐
We will continue to follow and update, of course ๐
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