Good morning friends - we have a full summary of everything happening now
We will summarize everything we know - including the responses from Iran
And we will look ahead - what's next:
So what actually happened in the last 24 hours?
The day before yesterday, a report that seemingly wasn't too interesting was broadcast on Channel 12's main edition...
Yaron Avraham reported on the 15 American demands
Among the American demands:
Complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear capabilities - including a complete halt to uranium enrichment within Iran, and a commitment not to develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances in the future.
- Iran will hand over its stock of 60% or higher enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
- Iran will stop using proxy forces in the Middle East - including ceasing funding, support, and arms sales.
- Iran will fully open the Strait of Hormuz.
And in addition - Iran will limit its missile production and their range.
What's interesting is - this report did nothing in real time.
But after the close -
American media outlets "remembered" to report on it - and in response, US markets reacted with sharp gains.
The strangest thing?
There's no way in the world the Iranians will agree to these terms - it's like trying to turn terrorists into a Ramat Gan Scouts branch...
When looking closely, one realizes that what drove the markets was a small line in the report - that Trump would allow them a one-month ceasefire for negotiations.
And that, friends - the market loved
All this happened overnight, but yesterday, throughout the day, something very strange is happening..
Pay attention to the headlines the Iranians are providing - from morning until night:
An Axios report claims that the Iranians think Trump's peace initiatives are a ploy - and that he plans to attack them further.
In addition - an official Iranian spokesperson claimed that the negotiations are being conducted between the Americans themselves...
He explained that the Americans call their failure an "agreement" and concluded by saying that the Iranians will never get along with the Americans.
Later in the day: Iran began to publish illogical demands...
It started with a demand to close all American bases in the Middle East, immediately cease Israeli activity against Hezbollah, and exclude discussion of the Iranian missile program from the agreement details.
- Then even more outlandish demands followed:
- Compensation and reparations for losses during the war.
- Iran receives official control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Security guarantees against future military action.
- No restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program.
Later in the day, reports emerged that Iran is strengthening its control over the Strait of Hormuz, and demanding very detailed information from any tanker wishing to pass through...
The Iranian demands are detailed information on the crew, cargo, and route of vessels requesting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and in addition, Iran demands toll payments of approximately $2 million per tanker.
Later - official reports that Iran does not agree to the ceasefire terms, and will not enter negotiations with those who violated its agreements in the past.
It was then reported that Iran says it has examined the US peace plan proposal and views the request as "excessive".
Iran also says it will not allow President Trump to determine the end date of the war.
Finally, the following report arrived - conditions for ending the war
Iran's conditions are:
1. Immediate cessation of attacks and assassinations against Iran.
2. A "tangible" guarantee against future US attacks.
3. A "decisive resolution and guaranteed payment" for war damages.
4. International recognition of Iran's "authority" over the Strait of Hormuz.
5. End of the war on all fronts, with an emphasis on Iran's proxies in the region.
In short - only negative headlines are coming from Iran.
And the big question is -
Where do the Iranians get the courage to keep taking hits and setting conditions?
And here we return to our post that analyzed Trump's strategy...
Assuming negotiations are indeed underway, Iran has one sole leverage point against Trump:
Oil and gas prices.
During the war, Iran controlled prices by blocking the straits and through negative headlines.
Trump, in a brilliant move - opened negotiations by pulling the plug on this leverage.
He sent a calming signal to the markets - with one hand he lowered oil prices - and with the other, he sent thousands of additional troops and forces to the Middle East.
The calm market we see now - that's Trump's winning card in negotiations!
(We do not rule out market maker involvement in this move at all)
As long as markets are calm and oil prices and bond yields are falling - Trump has the upper hand.
Everything you see or hear from Iran - these are attempts to regain their main leverage - so far without success.
Trump, with one hand, sends forces to the East - and with the other, tweets reassurance to the markets.
We will continue to follow and update