Updated summary – US government shutdown
After weeks of deadlock, the Senate today managed to pass in a first reading the bill that will end the government shutdown, causing Wall Street futures to rise in morning trading.
Here is the full picture
1. Shutdown status – Duration of shutdown: Day 39 of the shutdown.
Forecasts: According to KALSHI and Polymarket data, bets took a sharp turn this morning – from high bets that it might last up to 50 days – currently, the bets are 69% that the strike will end this week.
Recent developments: The Senate convened an extraordinary session on Sunday afternoon, a first vote already passed 60 to 40.
2. Severe economic impacts – Kevin Hassett, White House economic advisor: The shutdown deducted about 1.5% from the GDP.
Warning of negative growth in Q4 if it continues.
"Holiday travel could be completely paralyzed."
Sean Duffy, Secretary of Transportation: "The situation is already bad – and could get much worse." Warning that Thanksgiving flights could be almost completely canceled.
Aviation sector: Over 5,500 flights were canceled or delayed on Sunday.
Delta alone canceled more than 470 flights.
Staff shortages and operational restrictions are worsening the situation.
3. Government actions and social implications – White House order: Instruction to stop SNAP (food assistance) payments in various states.
Department of Agriculture (USDA): Warned states that payments made contrary to the instruction could lead to sanctions.
Legal context: The Supreme Court upheld the suspension, and states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin halted pre-planned payments.
4. Key points of the agreement: Temporary government funding until January 31. Full budget for SNAP and the Department of Veterans Affairs.