Trump's tariff decision – are markets ready for a surprise?
What about you, are you ready?
So here's a special post for channel members:
What to expect today and tomorrow - plus the exclusive full schedule in Israel time
Critical moment for markets! Today at 23:00 Israel time (16:00 EST), Trump is expected to deliver a crucial statement regarding tariffs – right at the close of trading in the US.
The meaning? Another trading day without certainty; large institutions will use the last day for final preparations ahead of the announcement...
Markets will truly react only on Thursday, which introduces an element of uncertainty and the possibility of sharp volatility.
So what exactly is expected? The projected volatility range according to options for the S&P 500 (SPX) stands at 0.95%, while for SPY it is wider – 1.23% (with the possibility of exercise until 17:30 EST in after-hours trading).
President Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs against most countries worldwide – including long-standing partners like Europe, Canada, and Japan.
Additionally, sectoral tariffs will be imposed on vehicles, pharmaceuticals, chips, alcohol, copper, and wood, as well as a 25% tariff on the automotive industry – a move expected to shake global manufacturers.
The big question: is the market missing something? Goldman's desk estimates that a 10-point rise in the effective tariff alone will not trigger a significant hawkish response.
But – investors might be underestimating the scenario of a more aggressive move:
For example: a tough and reciprocal tariff agenda, imposing 25% tariffs on strategic products
Such scenarios are certainly plausible, and according to Goldman Sachs, could lead to a much more significant market reaction, with a sharp increase in volatility.
Rumors from the White House speak of a tariff agenda tougher than ever before, and the question of questions is whether this is priced into the market.
A survey conducted by Deutsche Bank showed that most clients expect tariffs of about 10%, which aligns with Goldman Sachs' view that anything more would be considered a 'bad surprise' for the market.
So what do we do now?
Prepare for every scenario
Prepare yourselves – markets may discover on Thursday that they were too complacent about the real risk!
Is this a buying opportunity or a crash warning? We'll find out soon...
Exclusive and special for Hot Stock Alerts members
The full schedule of President Trump for Economic Liberation Day, April 2, 2025
Israel time
16:00 – President Trump convenes with his senior economic council for the finalization of the historic tariff initiative. 18:30 – White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt presents a preview of the dramatic announcement. 23:00 – Rose Garden speech: the President unveils bold reciprocal tariffs, restoring fairness to American trade. 23:30 – Meeting with the media and official photo after the announcement. 01:00 (April 3) – Senior administration officials update industry leaders on the plan's implementation, ensuring a smooth transition. 03:00 (April 3) – Global markets will begin to react to the impact of 'America Reinvigorated'.
We will continue to monitor and update – every part of this event holds surprises that can certainly affect market movements