Have you heard of the Taco Index?
If not, you should really get to know it.
Why?
Because Trump's 'Pain Point' Index (also known in the markets as the 'Taco Index') has just broken a historical record!
It reached a level of about 2 standard deviations above the average for the first time ever.
What is the Taco Index anyway? The Taco Index is essentially a political/economic 'thermometer' that incorporates critical data affecting all our pockets, and especially Trump's decisions.
It measures:
The declines in the S&P 500 index, the rise in 10-year bond yields that affect market stability.
The interest rates on 30-year mortgages (which have become very expensive).
It examines fuel prices.
Inflation expectations.
And also the public's satisfaction with the president.
All of these are economic indicators that are very important to Trump, especially in his second term as president.
When we talk about 'standard deviations' at such a high level, it means that the current situation is very unusual and extreme compared to what is defined as normal.
And of course, what is truly interesting is the direct link between the surges in this index and the decisions made in the White House.
Let's return to the index.
Over the past 15 months, we have identified a consistent pattern:
Every time the index surged significantly, we saw Trump halt or change his policy to de-escalate the situation.
This can be clearly seen at several key points in time:
In April 2025, a surge in the index led to a 90-day halt in import tariffs.
In September, economic pressure led to the end of the government shutdown.
In December, the famous threat regarding Greenland was canceled after the index showed too high a level of pain.
And finally, very recently, we saw Trump retract his threats regarding energy infrastructure in Iran.
The picture emerging from the data is simple, but critical for every investor to understand:
When bond yields surge too much and the stock market simultaneously begins to decline, according to past data, Trump chooses to intervene and change direction to calm the system.
And the question is what will happen now, as the index is surging again, but this time at an extreme and unusual level.
Will Trump act again to calm the markets?
Or is Trump willing to 'commit suicide' for his Iranian goals this time?
We are monitoring.