Idiot or genius?
What's happening with Trump?
Is Trump making all the negotiating textbook mistakes? Or is he quietly, behind the scenes, leading one of the most brilliant strategies in the history of wars against a stubborn and fanatical enemy?
Let's analyze the situation:
Yesterday during the trading day, the market was awaiting news from Pakistan. Traders were almost tearing their hair out in anticipation of positive news about renewed negotiations with the Iranians,
The Iranians delivered a negative surprise. They issued an official update stating they would not participate in talks as long as the Americans block the straits.
This announcement led to the market closing lower, as investors understood that we were once again heading towards escalation, bombs, fire, and plumes of smoke.
But then, immediately after the close, Trump issued a statement extending the ceasefire.
Everyone, rightly so, claims Trump is a complete zero.
That he doesn't want to return to war, and that his hands are tied.
This spectacle of the Iranians 'winning' an extension against their steadfastness towards the Americans makes Trump look a bit foolish.
But the truth is, the Iranians are being pushed into a corner. Trump's strategy seems nothing short of brilliant to us!
Tehran's slow strangulation: why Trump truly holds the Middle East's switch.
We will divide this analysis into several parts:
Part 1 – The 90-day scheme: the war that never ends.
The market might think the President of the United States has his hands tied, but we see how Trump plays by the rulebook like a shark in a fishpond.
Before diving into the details, you must understand that Trump operates according to a rulebook.
According to the laws of war, he has a 'monthly free pass' for 90 days (60 days of operation and an additional 30 days of withdrawal) during which he can act without seeking permission from Congress.
But there's one dirty trick that changes everything:
A 'tactical' two-week ceasefire.
This pause is not for peace; it's likely to reset the clock and generate another 60 days of free fire.
While Congress tries to figure out which form to fill, the bombers are already in the air.
Trump doesn't ask questions; he establishes facts, and these facts are a nightmare for anyone sitting in an office in Tehran.
Iran is in a corner, and it knows it.
On the one hand, if it dares to launch a single missile first, it will simply hand Trump the moral justification he so craves.
Trump is only looking for justification to launch a righteous annihilation attack, and Iran cannot give him that.
Iran, accustomed to playing for time, finds its clock has stopped.
It cannot attack first because then it becomes the official 'bad guy' in American prime time, and it cannot sit quietly because the economic strangulation is destroying it.
Its hands are tied with steel handcuffs, while the American Air Force is already warming up its engines.
Kharg is about to explode?
While Trump extends the ceasefire, the American military gains more time to arm itself and plan the major attack.
The Iranian economy? It's bleeding to death.
The American Treasury Secretary yesterday dropped a ticking bomb on the table:
The oil terminal in Kharg will fill up within a few days.
When there's nowhere to put the oil, Iran will be forced to shut off the taps.
Anyone who understands a bit about oil drilling knows that shutting down a well is not like turning off a light in the living room. It's an expensive, complicated, and sometimes irreversible process that eliminates future output.
With a staggering loss of $600 million per day, the Iranian military and public sector are beginning to realize their checks will bounce.
And when the stomach is empty, even the strongest ideology begins to falter.
Meanwhile, while Iran sweats, Trump sits with his feet on the table.
American oil is selling at record prices. The domestic market in the United States is more stable than it was during the Biden era, and the American voter sees relatively cheap fuel. Perhaps Trump can smile on his way to the November ballot?
How can this be?
Because as we have explained several times, the real drama of Hormuz is not in America at all.
Those truly taking the ricochets are Europe and Asia. Countries dependent on external oil and without wells in their backyard are discovering that the blockade on Iran is actually an indirect tax on their economies.
The result?
Trump is waging war at others' expense, and the global market is beginning to understand that the homeowner has truly gone mad, for his own benefit only.
If we are right, then Trump will likely continue to try to extend this ceasefire as much as possible. The longer it is, the tighter the rope around the Iranian economy will become.
And if the Iranians do not surrender, in the end we will probably see one of the largest and most spectacular attacks in history.
Because it has not yet happened that Trump said something and did not do it; that is a fact.
We hope we've brought some order to the chaos for you. Have an excellent day and a happy Independence Day!