Trump unleashed -
The new equation in the Strait of Hormuz - or more precisely - Iran is starting to recalculate its course:
In the last 24 hours, an event occurred that signals a significant change in the rules of the game around the Strait of Hormuz,
The US attacked three Iranian oil tankers after Iran attempted to attack 2 American warships in the area.
And this is the really important part.
Changing the 'soft hand' policy:
The US - did not settle for defending its ships,
It chose to respond by directly and triply striking Iran's oil and shipping assets.
Here a new equation is created -
Iran tries to attack a tanker or a ship in the strait?
The Americans respond by attacking a larger number of Iranian tankers.
Meaning - every Iranian action against shipping becomes a bad economic deal for Iran.
An Iranian tanker that is hit is not just a vessel,
It's a direct blow to Iran's ability to export oil, bring in foreign currency, and finance the war...
And here the deterrence effect comes in.
If Iran knows that any attack it makes on an American tanker could lead to a broader American response against the Iranian tanker fleet - then every action in the Strait of Hormuz becomes a dilemma for it:
Is it worth hitting one ship if the price could be the loss of several Iranian tankers and vessels?
This is a significant change.
Until now, Iran used Hormuz as leverage on the global market - a threat to freedom of navigation, a threat to oil supply, and raising the risk premium.
Now the US is trying to turn that same leverage - against it...
Instead of Iran saying: "Hey! - I'm crazy! I'll attack your ships!"
The American message becomes:
"You can hit ships... - but we will make you pay much more for it - 3 times over!"
And from the perspective of the oil market - this is a double-edged sword:
On one hand - damage to Iranian tankers could reduce Iranian oil supply and support the price.
On the other hand - if Iran understands that the price it is paying is increasing, it might escalate precisely in an attempt to change the equation.
Therefore, the market this week will not only look at whether Hormuz is open or closed - but at a much more important question:
How expensive will it be for Iran to continue disrupting it?
Because if every Iranian tanker that is hit makes Iran's next attack less worthwhile - the US is building a new deterrence mechanism around Hormuz.
And this time the bill comes in dollars (or Iranian rials).
In Hormuz, they don't just ask who shoots first - they ask who can afford to pay for the next round.
Note the attached tweet from Admiral Brad Cooper - commander of US CENTCOM.
It seems Trump has finally - started speaking Arabic.