Trump without restraints -
The new equation in the Strait of Hormuz - or more precisely - Iran is starting to recalculate its course:
In the last day, an event occurred that signals a significant change in the rules of the game around the Strait of Hormuz,
The US attacked three Iranian oil tankers after Iran attempted to attack 2 American warships in the area. 🔥
And this is the really important part. 🤌
Changing the 'soft hand' policy:
The US - did not settle for defending its ships,
It chose to respond with a direct and triple strike on Iran's oil and shipping assets. 🔥
Here a new equation is created -
Iran tries to attack a tanker or a ship in the Strait?
The Americans respond by attacking a larger number of Iranian tankers. 👌
Meaning - every Iranian action against shipping becomes a bad economic deal for Iran. 🤕
An Iranian tanker that is hit is not just a vessel,
It's a direct blow to Iran's ability to export oil, bring in foreign currency, and finance the war... 💵
And here the deterrence effect comes in. 🤌
If Iran knows that any attack it makes on an American tanker could lead to a broader American response against the Iranian tanker fleet - then every action in the Strait of Hormuz becomes a dilemma for it:
Is it worth hitting one ship if the price could be the loss of several Iranian tankers and ships? 🩸
This is a significant change. 🤌
Until now, Iran used Hormuz as leverage on the global market - a threat to freedom of navigation, a threat to oil supply, and raising the risk premium. 🩸
Now the US is trying to turn that same leverage - against it...
Instead of Iran saying: "Hey! - I'm crazy! I'll attack your ships!" 😈
The American message becomes:
"You can hit ships... - but we will make you pay much more for it - 3 times over!" 💵
And for the oil market - this is a double-edged sword:
On the one hand - hitting Iranian tankers can reduce Iranian oil supply and support the price. ✔️
On the other hand - if Iran understands that the price it is paying is growing, it might escalate precisely in an attempt to change the equation. 📡
Therefore, the market this week will not only look at whether Hormuz is open or closed - but at a much more important question:
How expensive will it be for Iran to continue disrupting it?
Because if every Iranian tanker that is hit makes Iran's next attack less worthwhile - the US is building a new deterrence mechanism around Hormuz. 💡
And this time the bill comes in dollars (or Iranian rials). 💵
In Hormuz, they don't just ask who shoots first - they ask who can afford to pay for the next round. 🔥
Note the attached tweet from Admiral Brad Cooper - commander of US CENTCOM. 🇺🇸
It seems Trump has finally - started speaking Arabic ☢️