While everyone is reading the headlines about the Houthis taking over the coasts of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, we have one signal that shows the real escalation is not yet at hand.
And one company, completely unexpected, that might benefit from a sudden influx of capital as a result of this situation.
So what is the connection between Toyota, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis?
Special intelligence information! $TM
For most of the world, Toyota is a great car company, Japanese, economical, strong, reliable – a great company.
For us, Toyota is a leading indicator for wars in the Middle East, let us explain:
The Toyota Hilux is no less than the AK-47 of modern off-road warfare,
And this is not just a metaphor.
For about 40 years, Toyota's jeeps have repeatedly appeared wherever wars developed,
In 1987, the conflict between Chad and Libya was even dubbed the "Toyota War," after Chadian forces used Toyota vehicles to defeat Libyan armored forces in the desert.
In Afghanistan, Soviet special forces preferred captured Toyotas over some of their own trucks.
In retrospect, ISIS convoys were also identified with enormous quantities of Toyota vehicles.
The reason is simple: Hilux and Land Cruiser are relatively inexpensive, fast, reliable, repairable almost anywhere, and perfectly suited for desert conditions.
And here, friends, begins the truly interesting part:
Our research team discovered that shipping data can precede war on the ground!
In 2020, Global Witness revealed a spreadsheet used by RSF forces in Sudan to track vehicle purchases,
The data indicated the purchase of over 1,000 Hilux and Land Cruiser vehicles, with more than 900 of them acquired within just six months from dealers in the Gulf region.
Our team managed to cross-reference the data with shipping lists, satellite images, and social media photos.
Before the battles peaked, the steel was already in motion.
We also identified the same pattern in Iraq...
Toyota's sales data indicated a significant surge in Hilux and Land Cruiser sales in Iraq in 2013,
A year later, ISIS convoys laden with Toyotas became one of the most recognizable symbols of the region's collapse.
Even the US Treasury Department asked Toyota to explain the supply chain of vehicles that reached terror-affiliated entities, (and perhaps also to embed secret hardware deep within the specifications...)
And then comes Pakistan!
Here the new signal enters our systems:
The Toyota plant in Karachi, Pakistan, suddenly increased production by about 17% while the Pakistani economy is facing weakness, a weak currency, pressure on consumption, and high fuel costs.
When an economy struggles to consume more vehicles but production actually increases, one might wonder if the buyer is even the private consumer.
The second possibility is fleet acquisition,
And then another significant piece of the puzzle enters:
The Pakistani Defense Minister stated that Pakistan would stand by Riyadh "in every possible measure" in defending Saudi Arabia against the Houthis under the "Mecca Agreement."
These two headlines, when appearing together, take on broader significance for us:
Transportation comes before soldiers.
If Pakistan increases jeep production while local demand is weak, and the country simultaneously signals a security commitment to Saudi Arabia...
An assessment is formed for us:
Pakistani production = jeep fleet = Gulf routes = Saudi Arabia = possibility of a ground campaign against the Houthis.
And remember we already said that Hilux and Land Cruiser are perfectly suited for this environment?
They are not tanks; they do not need to be.
Their advantage is in their simplicity:
Mobility, easy maintenance, range, availability, and the ability to operate in terrain where heavy vehicles become a burden.
Satellites show us where the war is already happening,
Missile data shows us how it is being conducted,
But the supply chain can show us where the capability to wage the next war begins to be built.
And our focus is on Pakistan –
If a 17% increase in vehicle production is not driven by local consumers but by fleet demand, and if Pakistan simultaneously strengthens its security commitment to Saudi Arabia, then the jeeps may be the first part of a broader move.
The jeep needs to be ready before the soldiers get into it.
For the masses, war may begin with a headline,
But for us, it can begin at the port, with a contract, and with a jeep long before it reaches the headlines.
We will continue to share knowledge and insights that change the rules of the game.