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The war with Iran - not just security, but also global economic
When talking about a confrontation with Iran, most people think missiles, borders, headlines.
But behind the scenes, another war is also taking place:
A war over energy, a war over trade routes, a technological war, a war over oil prices
And the markets - react faster than the headlines.
Oil is the main card
Iran sits on one of the world's largest oil and gas reserves - but more important is its geographical location.
The Strait of Hormuz
About 20% of global oil traffic passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
If the region ignites: oil prices jump, markets are pressured, inflation rises
Regional conflict = global shock
And Iran? It doesn't act alone; it has influence through regional proxies.
Any escalation can lead to disruptions in shipping lanes, damage to energy infrastructure, new sanctions - a chain reaction in the markets
And in the markets - uncertainty = volatility.
Who might profit from a security escalation?
Mainly players in defense industries - companies like:
- Lockheed Martin (LMT)
- RTX Corporation (RTX)
- Northrop Grumman (NOC)
- In Israel:
- Elbit Systems
- Orbit
- Third Eye
- Aerodrom
In the energy sector
- ExxonMobil (XOM)
- Chevron (CVX)
- Indonesia Energy (INDO)
Rising oil price = improved profitability.
Gold as a safe haven • Newmont (NEM)
In times of uncertainty, money may flee to “safe” assets.
And what is the real big risk?
Not necessarily direct war - but economic attrition warfare.
Sanctions, cyberattacks, shadow warfare.
Iran is considered a significant cyber player in the region - damage to digital infrastructure can affect banks, power grids, energy facilities
- And this is where cybersecurity companies come in - companies like:
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
- CrowdStrike (CRWD)
And what loses out in an escalation?
Aviation and tourism, global trade, emerging markets, weak currencies
Any rise in geopolitical tension = a rise in risk premium.
The confrontation with Iran is not just security-related - it is economic, energy-related, technological, and geopolitical.
It affects: fuel prices, inflation, defense companies, the energy market, the cybersecurity sector
Additionally, in Israel, this could also affect the large supermarkets (Rami Levy, Shufersal, etc.) with the rush to purchase supplies - and banking and insurance companies, because who wouldn't insure themselves and their home during an attack - and if the neighborhood was attacked, who would rebuild it?
This is all just out-of-the-box thinking about who is affected for better - or for worse - by the matter.
Markets don't wait for the first missile - it's enough for the risk to rise, and money already moves.