The war that didn't end: Iran, Hormuz, and Trump's moves

We constantly receive requests and questions from you regarding the situation in the Middle East... 🪖

So we've prepared a brief summary of the exact current situation in a few lines -

First of all, the war is not over. ❤️

Let's go back a bit - to understand the sequence of events during Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and we will try to analyze what happened, what is happening, and where we are headed... 📡

We ended Tuesday evening with Trump's historic announcement that an entire civilization was going to die - while in the background, news emerged that Iran had closed all diplomatic ties and threatened to add Saudi Aramco to its list of targets. 🚀

What happened in the hours that followed - were reports from Pakistan (which currently serves as the main mediator between Iran and the West) that Iran was showing flexibility for negotiations. 🤝

What were the signs of Iran's flexibility?

The following 10 conditions:

1. Commitment not to aggression.

2. Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.

3. Acceptance of uranium enrichment by Iran.

4. Removal of all primary sanctions.

5. Removal of all secondary sanctions.

6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions.

7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions.

8. Payment of reparations to Iran.

9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region.

10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

Sounds somewhat imaginary... 💭

What really happened behind the scenes?

Here is the description - according to the Axios report:

US envoy Steve Witkoff reacted furiously to Iran's 10-point proposal - calling it 'a disaster, a catastrophe.' 🇺🇸

Here's what happened next:

With the intervention of China, Turkey, and Egypt, who pressured Iran, 'corrections were made' to the Iranian document - until the Americans were satisfied and called it 'a reasonable basis for negotiation'. 🤝

Meanwhile - although the markets are enthusiastic, it's important to pay attention to what's happening in reality... 👻

In reality: As of now - there is no increase in the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 🔥

In fact - Wednesday was the weakest day since early April in terms of the number of ships that passed through there - and even those that did pass were Iranian-related ships! 😈

In addition - the United States and Israel are making a clear distinction between Iran and Lebanon, and Israel continues to attack in Lebanon... 🪖 (which even during the 'ceasefire' continues to send missiles to central Israel at 1 AM 🚀)

This is a very important strategic distinction, and Iran has declared that it will not open the Strait of Hormuz as long as attacks continue in Lebanon. 🛢

As of now - the Iranians deny that the negotiation team has even arrived in Pakistan, and according to them - it will not arrive until attacks in Lebanon completely cease. 🤝

What else?

Iran declared a 'safe passage' in the Strait of Hormuz - (claiming a mine threat, an interesting issue in itself, meaning it's not threatening an attack, but 'wants to help'... 😈)

Use of the safe passage - is subject to payment of a transit fee...👌

According to details that have reached us, this is the official procedure:

1. Every oil tanker passing through there must now send cargo details to the Iranian authorities before transit. 🤌

2. They receive a quote of about $1 per barrel. 👌

3. Payments are only allowed in Bitcoin, USDT, or USD1. 💵

In short - tankers without cargo can pass through Hormuz for free. 🤝

Trump? - responded last night that the Iranians must stop this demand 'immediately'! 🇺🇸

Or in short - the war is not over. 🔥

But what do we have in the meantime, and what might really be happening:

We have a cessation of Iranian attacks on Gulf states - at least officially. 🚀

In addition - a historic peace negotiation with Lebanon is possible! 🇱🇧

This move is expected to include meetings at the White House (in our opinion, this is part of a preliminary agreement with Trump - the king of peace 🕊).

And here we ask you a question - why is Trump even willing to agree to this deal, which looks more like another regular extension of the attack deadline? 🔎

The answer might be interesting...

Perhaps Trump mainly wanted to ease oil concerns - to allow countries to accumulate oil again, and in the end, to strike as hard as possible? 🤌

Perhaps the Iranians understand this, and therefore ensure that as long as there is no permanent deal, and American forces do not leave the area, the strait will not truly be open...? ⛈

Think about it...

Meanwhile - just a few hours ago, Trump issued a statement that Iran is not doing enough to allow oil passage through the straits... ❤️