The VIX signals and the S&P responds?
Are we on the verge of a trend change?
Pay attention to the following amazing information -
Occasionally, data appears that simply jumps off the screen and shouts: "Pay attention!".
This chart, which comes to us from SentimenTrader, tells a story you should know!
In the image, we see classic signals from the VIX, one of the strongest indicators measuring fear or calm in the options market.
Whenever the ratio between long-term and short-term futures contracts falls below a critical level (below 1), it signals that something big is happening – and usually, it occurs at the peak of panic.
The meaning?
When the structure inverts, meaning investors are willing to pay more for immediate protection than for the distant future – this is a classic signal for a fear spike, often accompanied by a market bottom.
Pay attention to the green triangles on the chart
They appear precisely at critical points over recent years:
December 2008 May 2010 August 2011 September 2015 February 2016 December 2018 March 2020
- And the most recent – April 2025..
In each of these instances, the S&P 500 showed positive returns within a six-month to one-year timeframe!
- And sometimes even particularly strong double-digit surges.
Notable data: After March 2020: a 44% increase within 6 months
After December 2018: 17.54% in 6 months
After September 2015: 12.86% in 6 months
And even at the peak of fear in 2008 – within a year the market rose over 22%!
So yes, not every such signal brings an immediate rally.
There are times when the market continues to fall a bit more before it reverses.
- But from an average and cumulative perspective, this is one of the more impressive historical strategies for identifying deep buying points.
The bottom line?
When the VIX structure goes awry – it's not necessarily time to flee.
This is often precisely the real opportunity for the patient and intelligent investor.
And this is precisely where large investors – those who understand market sentiment and don't just balance reports – start putting money into the system.
Are we once again on the verge of a dramatic upward move in the coming months?
Historically - this signal is positive.
The big question - will history repeat itself?