The Iranian cat and mouse game: an in-depth analysis
As we wrote to you on Friday:
Despite many reports that the Strait of Hormuz was closed,
In fact, on Friday it was not closed, but yesterday there was a twist (we'll get to that later).
In fact, the Iranians published an update through a body they established called the "Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority."
The update clearly stated that the strait remains open according to the 60-day agreement, and no money will be collected during these 60 days.
Wait, where's the Iranian catch?
Very simple!
The Iranians are trying to establish a new reality on the ground, in preparation for the day after.
The reality they are trying to establish is very simple:
1. From the Iranians' perspective, there is no such thing as the Strait of Hormuz; there is the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait.
2. There is no reality in the world to pass through this strait without Iranian approval; after all, it is an Iranian strait.
3. The only body that grants approval is an official Iranian body, through a completely official process.
4. After 60 days, the Iranians will start collecting money for passages.
In fact, the Iranians are trying to emerge stronger from the last confrontation.
They saw and learned how much influence these straits have on the world...
And they are effectively declaring: this strait is passing into Iranian ownership.
Trump, in response, declared: there will be no payments for passage through the Strait of Hormuz after the 60 days end.
Essentially, the Iranians and Trump are negotiating with the world!
And the question, as always, is who will yield first?
Trump? Or the Iranians?
Let's go back a few hours to yesterday...
Yesterday afternoon, reports began to emerge that the Iranians had closed the Strait of Hormuz...
These reports came with recordings from the field, in which Iranian officers were heard instructing ships to turn back.
The US military issued an official statement that it is monitoring developments and ensuring that the straits remain open.
But what the hell is going on here?
According to data reaching us just a few minutes ago, traffic data in the Strait of Hormuz effectively confirms its closure.
But here's the thing: the Strait of Hormuz can be open and closed at the same time.
How can this be?!
The answer is fear.
It's enough for whoever is captaining the ship to be afraid to pass through such a turbulent and sensitive place, and effectively the strait is closed for them.
And all the aircraft carriers in the world won't help solve this problem.
According to many reports, behind the scenes in Iran, there is actually real chaos...
Internal disagreement over the agreement causes different groups within Iran to react differently, so it is very possible that the blocking of the straits comes from parties not signatory to the agreement.
The point is that it's not certain that the negotiations in Switzerland can even solve this problem.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to gather forces in the Middle East, and just last weekend, several more aircraft, including long-range refueling planes, joined the American force in the region.
Friends, it seems the game is just beginning...