Everyone is talking about the inflating bubble in the artificial intelligence arena, but they are not talking about the pin...
If there is a bubble, a pin is needed to pop it.
And today, we will talk about one of the biggest risks on Wall Street, if not the biggest one.
A risk that, in our opinion, is growing day by day.
This risk has two words: "Sam Altman".
Or one word: "OPENAI".
This is the story of Sam Altman and OPENAI, against a monster that sees nothing and simply crushes everything.
You surely guessed right: Google.
It all started three years ago, Sam Altman launches ChatGPT, and the world goes crazy.
His company, OPENAI, grabs every possible headline and catches Google and other tech giants simply unprepared.
Google declares "war mode", understanding that if they are not first in the race, it means losses of billions of dollars, if not trillions in the longer term.
Over time, Google manages not only to catch up with Sam Altman, but to surpass him in technological capabilities, first with their incredible video model VEO3, then with the Nano Banana image editing model, and finally with the chat itself, with the latest Gemini model.
And now?
This is already reflected in user data: Gemini is consistently taking users from ChatGPT, Gemini usage time is increasing while ChatGPT usage time is decreasing, and Gemini download numbers are rising while ChatGPT download numbers are falling...
The situation has apparently become so bad that according to leaked internal documents, Sam Altman himself was forced to declare "code red" in his company, which is essentially an official declaration of war on Google..
And what's wrong with that?
The big problem is that Sam Altman prepared in advance precisely for this moment, and therefore he created a "magic circle" that ties his company to tech and chip giants in a Gordian knot.
"If I fall, everyone falls".
Pay attention to the following data.
OPENAI's total commitments for cloud and AI infrastructure purchases from companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, AMD, and others, amounts to nearly $1.5 trillion.
Understood?
In other words, $1.5 trillion in revenue for major technology companies depends on the success of Sam Altman's company.
But the truth is even more complex..
Large infrastructure providers that received commitments from OPENAI are taking out loans of over $100 billion to finance their expenses, this includes Oracle, CoreWeave, and SoftBank, and other companies..
Did Sam Altman simply open Pandora's box that obligates US companies to lead him to success?
But Google is not with him...
And Google doesn't care if everyone falls except Google, right?
On the contrary.
And the big question is, does Sam Altman have a real answer for Google?
And we will try to answer that in the next chapter...