The drama unfolding behind the scenes on Wall Street, and the tough questions about what lies ahead.
This day seemed like one of the most turbulent Wall Street has known.
A few hours before the market open, indices fell by about one percent, signaling a breach of important technical levels like the 6500 point level on the S&P500 index.
And then Trump arrived, and as only Trump knows how, he turned everything around.
It started with a tweet from Trump stating that talks with Iran were progressing well,
And as a result, he postponed the ultimatum he set about 24 hours earlier, which gave the Iranians 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or the United States would destroy Iran's energy infrastructure.
Indices reacted aggressively: the $SPY ETF, which was trading down over one percent a few minutes earlier, moved to gains of 2.5%!
The Russell moved to gains of over 3%.
Oil collapsed by about 11% in a few minutes.
But what's more interesting is what happened next:
The Iranians were quick to respond and deny: according to them, there were no talks, no negotiations, and certainly no agreement to American terms.
Markets reacted with confusion and began to correct downwards.
Trump quickly made time for journalists' questions, and there he provided huge headlines.
And we have many questions, as we will present to you in just a few moments.
But first, let's address what Trump said: pay attention to the nuances:
According to Trump, the Iranians approached him requesting an agreement. Additionally, Trump states that he has no idea what the Iranians are saying, as 'just yesterday' he spoke with them on the phone, and he expects another call to take place today.
Trump continues to provide amazing details about the emerging agreement. According to him, the Iranians agreed to give up their nuclear program, and control over the Strait of Hormuz would be shared between Iran and the United States.
And among other things, he notes that there will be some form of regime change here.
Incidentally, Trump notes that there is already agreement on 15 articles in the deal,
Trump adds that negotiations are progressing well, and a deal might be closed even before the end of the five days he allotted for it.
Trump's words calm the market, and the market? It starts to rise again.
In Iran? They continue to deny the claims.
If you thought it ended here...
Well, it didn't.
This is exactly where the mess begins.
Besides the many denials from Iran, while Trump was speaking, reports emerged about the arrival of massive ground forces in the Middle East.
These are thousands of American Marines from the 82nd Airborne Division.
They are joined by the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit aboard a ship named Boxer.
Thousands of Marines are expected to join them aboard the 'floating city,' Tripoli, which appeared off the island of Crete today.
A brave journalist asked Trump, 'If you are so confident in the agreement, why are you sending thousands of troops to the Middle East?'
Trump replied, 'If you were in my shoes and I asked you that question, do you really think I would answer you? That's a crazy question.'
When analyzing Trump's statements against the Iranian response, a very strange picture emerges.
Trump did not reveal the parties in Iran with whom he is negotiating.
Moreover, Trump concealed this, only stating that it was a very senior figure.
Senior US officials updated that these parties would not be revealed until the agreement is reached.
Something here is suspicious.
Additionally, the five days Trump allotted end exactly on the weekend, a time when US markets are closed.
This is exactly the time Trump likes most to act wildly and gain control until markets open on Monday.
Let's put the puzzle together:
Thousands of Marines on their way to the Middle East?
A senior figure who is not the president is negotiating without the Iranians' knowledge?
The time for closing the deal ends when markets are closed?
These questions lead us to an insight that might solve this complex equation.
If we assume that closed-door contacts are indeed taking place, then it is clear that these are powerful and sophisticated arm-wrestling maneuvers between the United States and Iran.
Iran is brandishing energy prices and the blocking of the straits.
The United States is brandishing attacks on energy facilities and ground occupation.
Trump releases good news to the market, raising markets, lowering oil prices, and lowering bond yields.
The result? A huge release of pressure from the markets and an expansion of personal maneuvering room.
Trump's parallel move, advancing forces, leveraging American pressure tactics, and preparing military forces for a ground operation, constitutes the last card against the Iranians.
The Iranians do not want to lose their main leverage, and therefore completely deny the contacts, in an attempt to create renewed pressure on the markets and raise oil prices.
Meanwhile, it's not going so well for them.
We will follow closely and continue to update.