Is it advisable to wait for certainty in markets during wartime?
History shows – the market finds a bottom long before the cannons stop roaring.
It is true – the widespread skepticism among investors towards the stock market today is completely understandable.
Many investors and traders choose to wait for the end of the war with Iran before deciding to return to the market, assuming that stocks will only bottom out when the war ends.
But a deep look at the historical data of the seven major wars in which the US was involved over the past 125 years reveals a different and quite surprising picture.
The data shows that stock markets tend to reach their low point within the first 10% of the war's duration.
Precisely during periods when visibility is lowest and the fog is particularly thick.
Precisely then! – at least historically.
The market found a bottom!
It turns out that sometimes waiting for 'quiet' can cost investors by missing out on the main rallies that come immediately after that early bottom.
Let's examine the numbers over the years:
World War I: lasted 19 months – and the market found a bottom after 8 months (about 44% of the time).
World War II: The war lasted 45 months for the US – but the Dow Jones index reached its bottom after only 5 months, which is just 10% of the total duration of the fighting.
Korean War: The war lasted 37 months – but the market bottom was set after only one month (2% of the time).
Vietnam War: Although it lasted 234 months, the market reached its low point after 24 months (10% of the time).
Gulf War: lasted only 7 months, with the bottom reached after two months (33% of the time).
War in Afghanistan: lasted 239 months, with the market finding a bottom after 12 months (5% of the time).
Iraq War: lasted 105 months, but the bottom was set right at the start of the war, on day 0.
On historical average: the duration of wars is about 98 months – while the average time to reach a bottom in the stock market is only 7 months,
This constitutes about 15% of the total war duration!
If we look at median data – it appears the bottom arrives even faster, after just 5 months or about 10% of the event's duration.
As of today – the Iran war, which began on February 28, 2026, is only one month into its timeline – and although the human instinct is to seek security and certainty, historical data indicates that the market tends to significantly anticipate the end of hostilities.
You're probably asking what the logic is?
Familiar with the famous Wall Street saying?
'Buy the rumor, sell the news.'
The market always prices in the future long before news headlines turn optimistic.