Is AI a bubble that will burst – or a global race with winners and losers?
You should listen to what Jeff Bezos has to say on the matter...
And for that, buckle up – we'll go back 25 years
Back to the year 2000!
– when Amazon almost crashed!
It was a historic moment of fear.
The dot-com bubble burst, and Amazon stock ($AMZN) – a symbol of the young internet – plummeted from $113 to just $6.
Investors lost their minds, analysts declared 'the company is finished,' employees opened job boards, and even – as Bezos recounted – employees' parents called to ask if their son was going to lose his job.
But Jeff Bezos, then a 36-year-old entrepreneur with a quiet yet determined gaze, saw something completely different.
While everyone stared at the red charts, he opened the internal reports – and saw a completely opposite picture:
The number of customers grew monthly. Revenue increased at a steady pace. Operating losses gradually decreased. And all the business's basic metrics – loyalty, repeat purchases, sales growth – improved.
In his words: 'While the stock price dropped from $113 to $6, every real business metric continued to rise.' This was the turning point. Bezos understood that the stock price did not represent the business reality, but only market sentiment.
'In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.' - Bezos quotes Benjamin Graham – Warren Buffett's spiritual mentor – and reminds entrepreneurs and investors:
Stock price is noise, not a compass.
In the short term – the market votes based on emotions. In the long term – it weighs the company's true value.
The goal, according to Bezos, is not to 'impress investors,' but to build a company that is heavy on the scales – a company with real value, good products, strong infrastructure, and a lasting advantage.
And now – history repeats itself. This time with artificial intelligence.
Bezos warns that what we are seeing around us now – with the hype around $AI – is very similar to what happened during the internet bubble.
Enthusiasm is at its peak: startups with 6 employees that have not yet developed a product are raising at a valuation of $20 billion.
Venture capital funds are investing in every idea with the two letters 'AI'.
And the result – money flows in every direction, without real distinction between good and bad.
But, and this is a very, very important 'but' – Bezos adds:
'This does not mean that AI is an illusion. On the contrary – it is a real revolution.'
He explains that AI is a horizontal and foundational technology – meaning, not one sector, but a layer that will affect all sectors:
Industry, hospitality, manufacturing, finance, transportation, healthcare – all will change.
According to him, even if today we focus on 'first-wave AI' companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, or Mistral – eventually, AI will integrate into every company in the world.
Industrial bubble ≠ financial bubble
Bezos distinguishes between two different types of 'bubbles':
A financial bubble – like the 2008 crisis, which harms the entire economy, destroys jobs, and collapses systems.
An industrial bubble – like the biotech bubble of the 90s, where most startups failed, but it was then that world-changing drugs were born.
Or in other words: 'An industrial bubble may burn capital, but it builds a future.' AI, for him, belongs to the second group.
Yes, there will be losses. Yes, companies will collapse. But from the flames, new giants will emerge.
The comparison that takes us back to the internet: Bezos recalls that even in the 90s, during the dot-com bubble, fiber optic infrastructures were deployed by companies that lost everything.
But these fibers – which remained after the bubble disappeared – are what built the foundation for today's internet.
According to Bezos, the same thing is happening now:
The enormous investments in AI are laying the groundwork for a new technological future.
So what is Bezos actually telling us?
Bubbles – they are part of the maturation process of major technologies.
Don't focus on the stock price – it's a momentary reflection of mood, not of true value.
Look for the fundamentals:
Customers, value, efficiency, innovation.
And most interestingly: according to Bezos, AI is not a trend, but a global deep change that will leave its mark on every field.
According to Bezos, AI is not 'a bubble that will burst,' but a giant wave – and within it, there will be winners and losers.
Whoever rides this wave correctly, with real value and not just hype, will become the giant company of the next generation.