Iran enters a financial siege – Trump has not yet played his joker
6 months of war – and now the United States is shifting the battle from the battlefield to an arena where Iran is much more vulnerable – the financial system.
The US Treasury Department yesterday announced "Operation Economic Boycott" – a 3-tiered move whose goal is not only to harm Iran, but to dry up the channels through which it manages to bring in money from outside.
And this is precisely the important point that is so crucial to understand,
This is a framework for action along with a warning that the clock has already started ticking.
The first layer – 60 targets come under fire,
Approximately 60 organizations, individuals, and vessels connected to Iran's nuclear, missile, cyber, and oil networks immediately enter the sanctions regime.
But this is only the visible front.
The second layer – this time targeting those who circumvent,
The United States is expanding secondary sanctions to five areas:
digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping.
Why is this so important?
Because Iran does not have to transfer money through the front door.
For years, it has used intermediaries, brokers, shell companies, ships, and payment systems in third countries to circumvent sanctions.
Now Trump is trying to close the windows as well.
The focus is on brokers from the UAE, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland, and Europe, alongside a "shadow fleet" of tankers that turn off tracking systems and secretly transport oil.
And this is already a much bigger story than Iran,
The real target is China...
Iran can produce oil.
The question is who is willing to buy it, transfer the money, and provide the logistical infrastructure (?)
According to published data, China buys about 90% of Iranian oil...
Therefore, if Trump truly wants to choke Iran's cash flow, he cannot be content with sanctions on Tehran.
He needs to make Chinese entities and international intermediaries understand that continued trade with Iran could cost them access to the dollar system.
And this is already a completely different kind of warning.
'The clock has started ticking.'
The American message is sharp:
Anyone who helps Iran launder money or circumvent sanctions could find themselves outside the dollar system.
Trump leaves the door open for escalation,
The countries that received individual notices did not necessarily receive the names of the public measures.
Trump spoke directly with leaders and the message was simple – follow the instructions, or the US Treasury Department will act unilaterally.
Here too, there is no rigid deadline.
There is an ongoing threat.
From Iran's perspective, the American message narrows the game to two options:
complete isolation or normalization, which in practice means heavy concessions from Tehran.
The market, meanwhile, is not excited,
The dollar strengthened.
Gold fell after a sharp rise, with a slight recovery later on.
And the Iranian rial had already reached a historic low around the preliminary announcement.
But on Wall Street?
Almost nothing.
And that makes sense.
The market has already been living with Iranian risk for six months – a large part of the geopolitical and oil risk is already priced in.
The current announcement does not yet present a huge list of Chinese companies being expelled from the dollar system, nor does it set a date when the Iranian oil tap will be closed.
Therefore, the market is not yet buying into the drama.
But the weekend could change the picture,
Three things could turn this story from a threat framework into a real market event:
The first – the disclosure of the names of the main financial entities affected by the sanctions.
The second – the question of whether Chinese entities will be included in the list. And the third – Iran's response.
Concurrently, negotiations are taking place between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz – the first meeting after the sanctions.
If Iran chooses an unusual response, such as a widespread cyberattack or actions around the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the story could quickly shift from a financial war to a much broader geopolitical crisis.
In short, the real event will begin the moment Washington reveals the names – and especially if those names lead to Beijing.
Because when the United States closes the door on Iran – the big question is not whether Tehran will knock on it – but who will try to open it from behind.