What really happened last night?
Data you probably didn't know...
And also, has the attack really been called off - a deep geopolitical analysis
This morning, everyone wakes up to another announcement from Trump about a ceasefire
The United States is fully prepared to confront the Islamic Republic in Iran, with a level of military threat, power, and might not seen since World War II.
Nevertheless, we received a request from Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to suspend all military action, as they agreed on the basic framework of an agreement.
The agreement will include an immediate, full, and comprehensive opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a complete end to the nuclear threat from Iran.
In accordance with this request, I agreed to cancel the military action on condition that a DEAL is reached quickly, for the future of the world, and also for the survival of Iran, which will be successful and prosperous.
The State of Israel also supports this promise. Please start working on this and ensure it is completed. Thank you for your interest in the matter. This announcement sent weekend futures from -0.4% to +0.8%.
The internet is abuzz, portraying Trump as the court jester who retreated, again and again, at the last minute from an attack.
But, when one looks at the facts, a very clear picture emerges: Trump is not speaking idly.
The chances that we were moments away from an attack are very high...
And the chances that the reason for avoidance is more operational than any other reason, in our estimation, is correct!
Let's get back to the facts.
Many things happened last night.
Movements of refueling planes, fighter jets, and also unidentified aircraft in the skies of the Middle East
Many photos were published of heavy equipment movements across Iran
The Iranians tweeted endlessly that their response would be devastating; they understood it was close
Accounts linked to the American administration issued a series of tweets with prayers for the success of the forces.
Additionally, the US State Department issued a security alert to embassy staff, warning that there is a high probability that tensions with Iran will significantly increase in the coming days.
The alert was sent to US embassies and missions in the Middle East, and includes the following countries: United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Egypt.
At the same time, it was reported in Israel that hospitals entered a high state of alert.
And then...
It started with a report in Axios that Saudi Arabia was pressuring Trump to avoid an attack at the last minute.
Continued with reports that the attack was indeed postponed
And was finally confirmed by a post from Trump himself, claiming that the Iranians agreed to the basic framework of the agreement - opening the Strait of Hormuz!
In our estimation, one of the following two possibilities is correct:
The first is that the United States and Israel are cooperating in a media deception operation of historical magnitude, involving active forces and the media.
The goal?
To exhaust the enemy - when it comes, they will already be exhausted and think it is, again, another preparation for a fictitious operation.
The second possibility is that the operation truly began, and was postponed, again, at the last minute for operational reasons.
Our research team is still confident that a very aggressive attack across Iran is planned, and the real question is not if, but when...
Trump's ability to do something seemingly shameful, and retreat again and again, only strengthens our assessment.
A real attack is on its way, and it is getting closer day by day.
And regardless of the market, for the people of Israel, we are all full of hope that this assessment will prove correct.