Good week, friends - double update for the start of the week
Let's try to make sense of the mess...
This information will cover the geopolitical situation; the next information will cover the market situation in relation to the geopolitical situation:
So first of all, negotiations officially began in Pakistan on Friday night.
And yes, despite the Iranian demand, this happened even though the attacks in Lebanon did not stop for a moment.
Which means the Iranians are compromising...
The American negotiating team, numbering no fewer than 300 officials, and the Iranian team, numbering 70 Iranian officials, landed in Pakistan.
The first meeting ended in a "stalemate" according to a Financial Times report.
Who is telling the truth and who is lying?
There are fundamental contradictions at the heart of the negotiations.
While Trump strongly claims that the most important issue in the negotiations is the Iranian nuclear program, the Financial Times report claims that the main dispute is actually over control of the Strait of Hormuz...
Meaning, Iran wants full control over the Strait of Hormuz, with official American endorsement.
Trump claims that this is not the issue at all.
The Iranian Tasnim news agency also joins the Financial Times, reporting that the Strait of Hormuz continues to be the central point in negotiations with the Americans...
Who is telling the truth?
Iran published 4 conditions on Friday that are "red lines".
- Strait of Hormuz.
- War reparations.
- Blocked Iranian assets.
- Ceasefire in the entire region.
And here too, it seems the Iranians are starting to compromise?
From 10 conditions, they have reduced it to 4 red lines.
What is particularly interesting is what is really happening in the Strait of Hormuz, and here too we need to sort out the conflicting reports...
What is known so far:
3 giant oil tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz today.
This may sound like a small number, but the significant news here is the size of the tankers.
Together, they carried 6 million barrels of oil.
This marks the day with the largest oil flow since the beginning of the conflict.
But this is still not enough; the daily oil shortage currently stands at more than 10 million barrels per day.
Just to give you an idea, here are data on what is currently stuck in the Strait of Hormuz:
- 426 oil tankers.
- 187 loaded tankers.
- 34 LPG tankers.
- 19 LNG tankers.
Total: approximately 172 million barrels of loaded oil are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
As of this writing, the straits simply refuse to open.
According to reports, Iran is struggling to open the straits because it cannot find all the mines it itself laid in the straits...
What is not clear: are the Iranians lying?
It is very possible that Iran is playing a game to keep the straits closed and leverage this reality as a card in negotiations...
In response to this, reports reaching us this morning (*strongly denied by the Iranians) claim that American warships entered the straits to clear the mines...
Trump also updated that the Americans are working on opening the straits.
So if we try to summarize:
The Iranians are showing signs of compromise.
The straits are still closed despite the improvement, with conflicting reports on what is really happening there.
The negotiations are stalled over the issue of the Strait of Hormuz.