Bitcoin - have we reached the historical turning point?
If you are crypto enthusiasts - this is for you.
The Bitcoin currency is currently experiencing significant volatility, but historical data indicates that, at least statistically, we may be at one of the most interesting points of recent years.
For the first time in a long while, Bitcoin's weekly RSI index has dropped below the 30 level.
For those less familiar, the RSI index (Relative Strength Index) is a type of financial 'thermometer'.
When it drops below 30, it is considered an 'oversold' condition - a situation where the price has fallen too sharply and quickly, and it often signals that the market has bottomed out and is preparing for a rebound.
What happened in previous instances?
Bitcoin's history shows that every time this index dropped below 30, the results in the following weeks and months were consistently positive.
Previous occurrences were in November 2011, January 2015, December 2018, and June 2022.
A look at past data after the index crosses the 30 threshold downwards:
On the first day: an average increase of 1.91% was recorded, with a 75% probability of positive return.
After 3 days: the average increase jumps to 8.72%.
After one week: the average surge stands at 13.02%.
After one month: Bitcoin yielded an average return of 23.34%.
After two months: the most impressive average return stands at 34.54%.
Points to consider
1. The data shows strength in the medium term.
2. When examining 4 days, 5 days, 6 days, and one month after the event - in 100% of historical cases, the price was higher than the point where the index crossed 30.
3. The current date, February 8, 2026, marks only the fifth time in history that Bitcoin has reached such an extreme 'oversold' level on the weekly chart.
While the market can always surprise, the dry statistics tell a simple factual story: every time Bitcoin was so 'cheap' according to the RSI index, those who held on for a month or two saw profits.
This means that even if there is volatility in the immediate term of one or two days (as happened in 2011), as one moves further from this point, the statistical probability of significant increases historically grows.