Annual fiscal report – US 2025: good news with a caveat

Annual fiscal report – US 2025: good news with a caveat

After a delay due to the government shutdown, the US Treasury Department published the fiscal year 2025 report

and the resulting picture is complex: The data is better than expected, but behind it lies a particularly challenging budgetary reality.

Record revenue for September. Government revenue reached $543 billion, the highest level since April and 3.2% higher than last year.

Income taxes: $298 billion. Social Security: approximately one-third of revenue. Corporations: $62 billion (approximately 11% of the total).

Expenses in sharp decline. September expenses totaled $346 billion, a dramatic decrease compared to $689 billion in August and 25% less than the previous year.

The 6-month moving average decreased to $573 billion — the lowest since June 2024.

Key items: Social Security – $133 billion. Healthcare – $94 billion. Defense – $76 billion. Interest payments – only $37 billion (due to a technical calendar deferral).

Exceptional surplus for September. September's fiscal surplus was among the highest in modern US history, mainly due to record tariff collection — $29.7 billion for the month, and $195 billion for the year.

However, it is important to remember that part of the improvement stems from a technical 'trick' – a deferral of payments to October, so the surplus is expected to balance out later.

The year's picture: a deceptive improvement.

For fiscal year 2025: Total expenses: $7 trillion. Revenue: $5.2 trillion. Deficit: $1.78 trillion.

Annual interest payments have already surged to $1.22 trillion, and are now approaching the level of Social Security spending — a difference of less than $400 billion.

The debt – approaching $40 trillion. The US national debt is expected to exceed $38 trillion in the coming days, and cross the $40 trillion mark in less than a year.

The implication?

For every dollar entering the state coffers – 23 cents of it are dedicated to interest alone.

Despite the encouraging short-term data, the report reveals a worrying long-term reality – the US economy is operating under a ballooning debt burden, and the deficit is becoming harder to close.

'September's surplus' looks good on paper, but it may only be a momentary reprieve before another wave of expenses.